Elections

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Byron Donalds

Yes

James Fishback

No

$71,017,463 vol

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Abdul El-Sayed

Yes

Haley Stevens

No

$31,496,913 vol

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Darline Graham

Yes

Ralph Norman

No

$25,724,483 vol

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Ed Gallrein

Yes

Thomas Massie

No

$21,982,848 vol

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

Ken Paxton

Yes

John Cornyn

No

$18,353,657 vol

Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

David Crowley

Yes

Francesca Hong

No

$16,392,343 vol

Texas Democratic Senate nominee?

James Talarico

Yes

Jasmine Crockett

No

$14,628,756 vol

California Governor primary: 1st place

Xavier Becerra

Yes

Steve Hilton

No

$10,892,317 vol

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

At least 1%

Yes

At least 10%

Yes

$10,835,804 vol

Los Angeles mayor matchup

Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass

Yes

Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt

No

$9,913,873 vol

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

Steve Hilton

Yes

Xavier Becerra

Yes

$8,482,481 vol

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%

Yes

Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15%

No

$6,317,763 vol

Maine Democratic Senate nominee?

Graham Platner

Yes

Janet Mills

No

$6,220,621 vol

Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory?

Talarico, 6-9%

Yes

Talarico, 3-6%

No

$5,475,015 vol

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Ed Markey

Yes

Seth Moulton

No

$4,851,143 vol

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Ed Gallrein, 5-10%

Yes

Thomas Massie, 0-5%

No

$4,768,735 vol

Texas Senate matchup?

Talarico vs. Paxton

Yes

Talarico vs. Cornyn

No

$4,337,357 vol

Texas Senate Democratic primary turnout?

Above 2,300,000

Yes

Above 2,200,000

Yes

$4,301,904 vol

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

Troy Jackson

Yes

Graham Platner

No

$4,247,514 vol

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Ken Paxton, 20%+

Yes

Ken Paxton, 15-20%

No

$4,065,573 vol

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Mazzei

Yes

Gentner Drummond

No

$3,628,071 vol

MI-13 Democratic nominee?

Donavan McKinney

Yes

Shri Thanedar

No

$3,385,207 vol

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?

Darline Graham, 3-6%

Yes

Darline Graham, 0-3%

No

$3,105,002 vol

South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?

Alan Wilson

Yes

Pamela Evette

No

$3,087,237 vol

Ohio Republican Governor nominee?

Vivek Ramaswamy

Yes

Casey Putsch

No

$2,561,750 vol

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Yes

Michael Thurmond

No

$2,295,599 vol

California governor primary: top 3

Becerra, Hilton, Steyer

Yes

Hilton, Becerra, Steyer

No

$2,271,077 vol

Georgia Republican Governor nominee?

Rick Jackson

Yes

Burt Jones

No

$2,261,055 vol

Iowa Republican Governor nominee?

Zach Lahn

Yes

Randy Feenstra

No

$2,260,503 vol

NJ-11 special Democratic nominee?

Analilia Mejia

Yes

Tom Malinowski

No

$2,250,361 vol

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

Julia Letlow

Yes

John Fleming

No

$2,205,757 vol

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Larry Rhoden

Yes

Toby Doeden

No

$2,006,245 vol

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Lisa Demuth

Yes

Mike Lindell

No

$1,996,771 vol

Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

Barry Moore

Yes

Jared Hudson

No

$1,987,899 vol

California Governor matchup?

Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton

Yes

Xavier Becerra vs. Tom Steyer

No

$1,982,527 vol

California Governor primary advancers? (Party)

1 Democrat and 1 Republican

Yes

2 Democrats

No

$1,903,097 vol

Ohio Republican Governor primary: Vivek Ramaswamy vote percent

At least 80%

Yes

50% - 55%

No

$1,883,453 vol

Georgia Republican Senate nominee?

Mike Collins

Yes

Derek Dooley

No

$1,761,819 vol

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

John James

Yes

Perry Johnson

No

$1,644,710 vol

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: 1st place (1st round)

Darline Graham

Yes

Ralph Norman

No

$1,585,286 vol

Colorado Senate primary margin of victory?

John Hickenlooper, ≥3%

Yes

John Hickenlooper, ≥9%

No

$1,566,861 vol

CO-01 Democratic nominee?

Melat Kiros

Yes

Diana DeGette

No

$1,501,287 vol

Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?

Juliana Stratton

Yes

Raja Krishnamoorthi

No

$1,482,903 vol

MO-01 Democratic nominee?

Wesley Bell

Yes

Cori Bush

No

$1,470,663 vol

Colorado Republican Governor nominee?

Victor Marx

Yes

Barbara Kirkmeyer

No

$1,443,367 vol

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Randy Fine

Yes

Daniel Bilzerian

No

$1,387,390 vol

NY-12 Democratic nominee?

Micah Lasher

Yes

Alex Bores

No

$1,276,837 vol

NY-13 Democratic nominee?

Darializa Avila Chevalier

Yes

Adriano Espaillat

No

$1,233,563 vol

Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?

Helena Foulkes

Yes

Dan McKee

No

$1,220,026 vol

New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?

Chris Pappas

Yes

Karishma Manzur

No

$1,178,223 vol